The industry is at a crossroads, in more ways than one.
The obvious one is what preoccupies everyone at the moment. The industry has slowed. NICS checks remain high by historical standards, but the consistent growth the industry worked to match during the Obama years has been replaced by at best a plateau, excepting the COVID spike, and at worst, a downtrend. The information from NASGW, covering other categories like ammo and optics, shows a similar trend in recent years.
Those of us in the industry feel what the numbers are telling us. The future is uncertain. The inevitable march of time is walking us into another intersection that is far more predictable in its arrival, but which carries implications far beyond the whims of the consumer.
We are at a generational juncture between two or three of perhaps the most disparate generations we’ve ever seen. The Baby Boomers are in their mid-60s to nearly 80. Gen X are in their mid-40s to early 60s, and millennials are 30 to their early 40s.
These three generations have bridged the gap of civilization, moving from an analog existence to a digital one, and in many ways are still wrestling with the downstream effects of that tectonic shift for humanity.
The Baby Boomers have moved well into retirement. Those members on the leading edge of Gen X are there as well, and many are seeing the industry uncertainty as a good time to walk away with good years left.
This leaves the millennials, specifically the Xennials (born 77-83, a recognized microgeneration) assuming leadership and strategic roles within organizations as their mentors and managers transition to their retirement.
With some help from colleagues around the industry, we will look at what this transition means to the industry, how has it already shaped it, and what the future looks like for the New Old Guard.
The Industry Today
In the last 18 months, I’ve fielded the “so where do you see things going?” question more than the rest of my 15 years in the industry combined. Ask marketers, salespeople, shop owners and even media to describe the industry in one word, and the most common answer is “uncertainty,” or some synonym of it.
That uncertainty is absolutely warranted. The last handful of years have given us a host of firsts, and few have been good.
While NICS check numbers are hardly a perfect figure, they are consistent and offer context. Since the system was started in 1998, we had never had consecutive years of negative growth in the NICS check numbers. Until 2022.
Beyond that, we’ve seen the numbers continue to fall every year since. We saw our fifth consecutive year of decline in 2025. While 2026 numbers are too early to call, that five consecutive years of decline is certainly not a harbinger of a positive trend for the industry.
One could try to paint a rosy picture by saying the spike we saw in 2020, fueled by social unrest, COVID, and the almost universal election-year bump was just not sustainable. The 39% year-over-year increase we saw in 2020 dwarfed the next biggest YoY increase of 19%, achieved first in 2012 during the Obama re-election, and duplicated in 2016 in the run-up to the presumed Hillary Clinton administration.
A one-year increase that more than doubles any other one-year increase is certainly an outlier that is going to require a course correction.
If we look at the industry trends on a longer arc, we would hope to see some of this data flatten, and to some extent it does. The problem is that even when looking at a three-year rolling average, the NICS declines have continued beyond the initial correction from the 2020 spike, which peaked in 2022 with a 19% reduction in checks, 11% higher than the previous record decline in 2017. This followed Clinton’s defeat by Donald Trump and kicked off what has come to be known as the “Trump Slump” that endured until the pandemic.
The three-year rolling average for NICS checks has declined 9%, 11% and 6% in 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively. This again represents a data anomaly that has never been seen before. To find even two years of negative growth in a three-year period you have to go back to before the 1994 Assault Weapons Ban was lifted, with declines in 2002 and 2004 of 3% and 1%.
In the 15 years between 2005 and 2019, the time between the end of the AWB and the pandemic, NICS checks saw an average annual increase of 8%. The combination of the Obama presidency and the anti-gun rhetoric therein, coupled with the sunsetting of the AWB and the exploding demand it created, largely for the AR-15 the new American rifle, was a boon to the entire industry.
All that said to say this: Even if we try to flatten the five years since 2020, we still see a significant step back in demand. If one assumes that five years is a suitable amount of time to examine if what 2020 really did was just pull forward sales to be expected over the next few years, then you could apply the 8% growth and project total NICS checks for that time, and you should see the numbers come close to matching.
If you start with the 2019 numbers, before the spike, and apply an 8% increase each year through 2025, we would have seen a total just shy of 225,000,000 for NICS checks. The reality is that we saw just under 194,000,000. That’s roughly a 16% shortfall.
Even a modest 4% annual growth, a number that we only failed to reach five times in 15 years, would have resulted in almost 196,000,000 NICS checks.
Again, I concede that NICS check aren’t a perfect figure, but when taken with the larger context, like NASGW data, and vibe checks around the industry, it tracks.
Almost two decades of growth has at least plateaued. I think we see real evidence of a contraction. That’s where we the industry sits today.
This less-than-rosy picture is, I believe, in part responsible for the exit of some of our more experienced leaders in the industry. Some of them have been by choice; others, no doubt, by heavy suggestion from leadership eager to cut costs and overhead as they see reduced revenues and profits, thanks to discounts to keep products moving.
As these departments are losing executive-level leadership, and their experience-fueled compensation, a new crop of leaders is being pulled to the front lines at a tumultuous time.
Gone are the days of 8% annual growth. These are the days of a crowded marketplace that struggled to keep up with demand for 15 years, now tasked with keeping the lights on amid a prolonged sales downturn, with years of investments in facility and staff, for which a return must still be found.
Storied times, these are not.
How do we attack this marketplace with these new challenges and a new leadership class?
Consumer Implications
It’s impossible to explore the path forward without first looking at how the consumer dynamic has changed over this last 15 years as well.
As we look at millennials becoming a driving force in director-and-above roles, we also have to acknowledge that this generation is now a significant driver of overall consumer spending as well.
This is a shift that is not yet complete, as to this point the aforementioned Xennials, or elder millennials, are doing the heavy lifting, while younger millennials are still cutting their teeth in middle management.
These leading-edge millennials straddle the Gen X and traditional millennial cohorts. They grew up with a mostly analog youth but adapted to the digital age in their formative years. Now in their 40s, many have moved into home ownership and starting a family, and have real, grown-up money for the first time in their lives.
The market has responded to this shifting purchasing authority in multiple ways, and these are critical as you look toward the future for your shop or your brand.
Window shopping is no longer done in person. Research is done digitally, as are many purchases. Because, however, many of this cohort still grew up analog, they haven’t abandoned in-person shopping completely. Where there is value in physical shopping, they will still do it, and your shop has to recognize that they need to offer something that online doesn’t. More often than not, that won’t be a price advantage. It needs to be a tangible benefit.
Spinning it even further forward to Gen Z and the younger Gen Alpha, currently just reaching their teenage years, we see a rapid progression toward community, persona and status. These even younger generations are looking at what a product or pursuit says about them and the validation that the community of that pursuit provides.
These youngest shoppers are looking at personas, not products. There are discussions about merchandising making a pivot to persona-based store organization rather than product-based. Instead of having all the backpacks in one area, for instance, backpacks designed for outdoor adventure would be in a camping-focused area, tactical packs would be with other tactical gear, and so on.
Similarly, as I have written about numerous times in these very pages, there needs to be a focus on creating communities that support these pursuits. Hosting events that support network growth and drive engagement will appeal to these younger shoppers as their wallets begin to match their eyes. It’s not too late to get in on this transition, but you need to start now.
The other reality that exists simultaneously is that it is still the Baby Boomers and Gen X that have the greatest purchasing power. While it’s fun and exciting to pitch forward and talk about how to appeal to the youngest shoppers, that doesn’t mean they actually have the money to buy your product in a volume that will sustain you or serve as a suitable customer base.
A shifting leadership structure needs to appeal to new customers, that see the world in a way no other generation ever has, without isolating the older generations that still have the most money to spend. What a predicament.
The Millennial Advantage
While it won’t fall entirely on the shoulders of the millennials stepping into leadership, they will have a seat at the table. Beyond that, they are going to bring some new dynamics to the leadership and strategic landscape that will prove critical to plotting the path forward.
“I think a lot of millennial leaders are able to see things differently because they’ve been around long enough to experience a variety of leadership styles and workplace environments,” said Laci Warden, Owner of Fire and Lace Consulting, and fellow elder Millennial. “They can see what works, what isn’t working, and have an idea how to find a balance,” she added.
Those of us on the leading edge of the millennial generation have 20 years or more of work experience. Whether all those years were in our industry or not doesn’t matter as much as sheer amount of time on task. We’re no longer wet-behind-the-ears newbs, leaning on theory and takeaways from 201-level classes in college. We’ve been on the job long enough to have real ideas about how to attack problems.
Part of that balance is also rooted on the way millennials have matured. As the generation that bridges the digital and technology divide, we understand both the analog and digital solutions and are capable of building strategies that leverage both.
Linda Powell, an industry stalwart for decades with time at Remington and Mossberg, added, “Millennials are tech savvy and digital-focused as technology has been part of their lives almost since birth. I think this leads to an ability to be creative and intrigued to try new types of communication with consumers. Millennial communicators have benefited many corporations by expanding their reach.”
In an industry like the shooting sports, with a rich heritage that informs where we are today, the ability to understand that history and blend it with the digital fluency that these new leaders possess can be a gamechanger.
Shaylene Keiner, President of HeadHunters NW, has another perspective. As a recruiter, it’s her job to marry the vision of brands with candidates that can put that goal into action. Increasingly, the candidates she’s bringing to the table are millennials.
While millennials sometimes get a reputation for being difficult, Shaylene has a different take.
“Millennials ask ‘why’ not to be difficult, but because they do better work when they
understand the mission behind it,” she said. “The firearms industry is built on heritage, rights,
and responsibility, and that’s a tremendous asset. A millennial who is genuinely connected
to that mission will advocate for your brand with an authenticity no marketing budget
can manufacture. Companies that have learned to channel that energy, rather than
manage it down, have a real competitive advantage.”
These new millennial leaders have enough years in the workforce to have context and valuable input, and a unique reality that can properly leverage a message to the marketplace. They also have a new take on what employment should look like.
Keiner had thoughts on that as well.
“Millennials don’t see employment as a transaction, they see it as a relationship. They watched the implied loyalty contract get broken through layoffs and the 2008 financial crisis, and they entered the workforce skeptical of institutional loyalty as a result,” she said.
Warden concurs, adding “I think more people are realizing they want more purpose out of the work they’re doing, and their life in general. Millennials don’t just want to check boxes or collect a paycheck. Rather, they want to work for and with companies that allow them the autonomy to enjoy what they do while having a life outside of work, too.”
Sometimes this desire for balance is seen as an indication that millennials don’t take work as seriously as other generations have. While that’s true for some, I think every generation has had a cohort that left something to be desired when it comes to work ethic.
Millennials came of age during the “Just Do It” campaigns from Nike and in the days of the “No Fear” brand. The highest achievers of the millennial generation are the fully-realized embodiment of the “work hard, play hard” mantra.
The days of pensions and a 40-year career with one company are gone. We’re not likely to see them return. Broadly, I think millennials are ok with this evolution, provided concessions are made. We’re happy to work hard for a company, make sacrifices, and commit to the vision of a brand.
That said, without the long-term stability that generations enjoyed before us, we expect some flexibility in how our work life unfolds. Millennials were the latchkey kids. We saw our parents work the days away, while compensation wound down, and they missed little league games or homework around the table. That’s not the kind of parent we want to be, or the type of personal life we want to have — especially when we just came through a pandemic that proved remote work, flexible hours, and work-life balance don’t mean part-time, reduced efficiency, or lazy workers.
As millennials start to lead teams, this mindset offers their teams the kind of environment the best workers are seeking out.
Powell summed it up well, saying, “Millennials tend to embrace a better work-life balance.”
For Keiner, there’s a trickle-down effect to their teams. “Millennial leaders are empathetic, collaborative, and values-driven, and they’re building the inclusive cultures the firearms industry needs as it works to welcome a more diverse base of shooters and buyers.”
It’s one thing to have a millennial in a role where they bring value to the company. It’s vastly more valuable to have the kind of millennial leader that gets a reputation as a leader that top-tier talent wants to work for, with, and under.
And of course, we can’t have a conversation about how things are changing without mentioning AI. For Keiner, it’s becoming a bigger part of the puzzle when talking to brands about the candidates they’re after.
“My clients are increasingly asking me to find younger people who don’t just understand AI, but can leverage it. Gen Z has grown up in a world where technology is the environment, not a tool they learned to use, and that distinction matters.”
While AI is a new tool even for millennials, the teams they will lead into the next iteration of the shooting sports industry will be made up of Gen Z and Gen Alpha, who grew up with AI being every bit a part of their reality as the internet was for the millennial.
“When you hire someone who can truly scale what AI can do, you’re hiring a multiplier. The firearms industry has always respected product innovation, but the next frontier is building AI-fluent teams. The companies that start that now will have a significant advantage over those who wait,” Keiner concluded.
In the end, the value millennials bring to the table isn’t just in the skillset they possess, but in the way their reality is going to help mold the culture of brands moving forward. Embracing the force-multiplying capabilities of millennials is a massive change, especially for an industry with a reputation as conservative as the shooting sports. But, it doesn’t have to happen all at once or completely change what your company is about.
Acknowledging times are changing doesn’t mean forgetting where we came from. That’s what good millennial leadership looks like.
Media Dynamics
Brands are evolving, but so too is media. From the way media is produced to the way it is consumed, the influence of younger generations in the media space is as much a driver of the generational evolution as a result.
Navigating it from a company perspective is a challenge because of the sheer volume of outlets that require attention. For the creators, change is a requirement to avoid obsolescence.
There may be nobody more qualified to talk about that evolution than a Gresham.
“When my grandfather, Grits, was making content, there were only three TV stations, a handful of hunting and shooting magazines, and some local newspaper columns or radio segments,” said Ryan Gresham, owner of GunTalk Media and the third generation of gun-content-generating Greshams. “Now there are websites, social media accounts, podcasts, several outdoor networks and TV shows, and audiences curate where they get their information and entertainment from thousands of sources.”
All those outlets have created a need for creators who can fill the hopper. The content churn never stops, and as younger generations want more of what they want when they want it and connectivity makes the 24-hour news cycle feel like an unsatiated beast, filling the void sometimes means quantity becomes the focus rather than quality.
Ryan’s father, GunTalk Radio host and industry stalwart Tom Gresham, spoke to how that informs the content being created, saying, “There’s a different approach insomuch as viewing ‘what works’ versus what generates ‘vibe’ or engagement. Outrageous content does not, in many cases, deliver results, unless the result desired is just numbers rather than results for the advertiser.”
Tom’s point is one I’ve made numerous times, most pointedly in my article for Tactical Retailer about why I’ve given up on social media. For years, millennial marketers have been tasked with generating numbers in social media that were digestible for leadership. Advertising is an expense, and one that is all but impossible to quantify completely.
Social and digital advertising gave marketing-averse leadership all the data it could ever want, without context that made it make sense. Good marketing might not go viral, but outrageous content would. This started a cycle of rewarding the worst type of content creation and gave rise to a type of shock-jock content creator that I’ve lamented from the beginning. Generating views or likes alone doesn’t speak to the quality of the content.
Brent Wheat, Host of the GunsPodcast.us, agrees. “There are those who understand that stories are at the core of communicating, and this will never change; these people are leveraging our incredible technology, creating inspired value and raising the bar for all of us,” he said. “On the other hand, too many others — enabled by this same technology — are clearly in love with the fact they can be ‘a star’ even if they have no reason for believing this. Too many content creators today are living examples of ‘You CAN do this, but why?’ One of the positives from the days of ‘gatekeepers’ is that work was vetted before being inflicted upon the masses, and this tended to weed out the people and stories who weren’t ready for such a responsibility.”
It’s a fine line to toe, and as digital evolved into social media, that line has gotten downright blurry.
It’s up to every consumer, editor, marketer and company to decide just where they fall on that spectrum and what they can tolerate, but the sleepless monster that is the algorithm won’t wait for them. The content will be served, with them or without.
Wheat’s podcast co-host, Roy Huntington, longtime editor and contributor at FMG Publications, added, “There’s a crush of ‘what’s new’ and clickbait, with little deep-diving into the real-world history and how we get here when they cover new product. Too many think shooting began at Glocks and ARs.”
Anyone that consumes shooting media can certainly see Roy’s point. It’s not about pretending the new product doesn’t matter any more than it’s about saying the internet is a fad and not worth our time. That doesn’t mean we should abandon good content fundamentals, storytelling, and credibility.
“In making hundreds of videos for our FMG Publications YouTube channel, the single thing I hear most often in comments is the fact that people of all ages appreciate my experience in the real world. When someone can say, ‘I’ve been in the industry for 45 years and this is what I’ve learned,’ most people listen. Especially if you don’t use clickbait. You don’t need to use clickbait if what you have to say is sound.”
Wheat puts an even finer point on it, adding, “We’re quickly reaching a point where every story is a thinly-veiled infomercial. I fear follow-on generations believe this is how ‘content creation’ works: You get free product and then say nice things about it on the internet. Any thought of story arc, plot twist, deeper insight or even critical thinking is disappearing from the younger generations. The first time I read Big Two Hearted River in Junior High, it affected me deeply, and I still re-read it (sometimes sitting on a rock in the middle of a river) to this day. Will any of today’s ‘content’ achieve this level of transcendence? Even more troubling, will anyone even care? I fear not.”
Media is experiencing every bit the evolution the industry itself is at the moment. The same generational transition is happening, and we need to examine how to incorporate the best of what the new leaders in the category can offer, without losing the tent poles that have held the institution up — from Grits Gresham to Tom and now to Ryan.
What Millennials Miss
Millennials leaders aren’t a magic bullet. As one, I know I’m flawed, and I have harsh criticism for vast swaths of my contemporaries; I always have. Millennials bring a new set of biases and idiosyncrasies that need to be tempered and modulated.
Millennials aren’t unique in that way. Every generation has been on the receiving end of the prior’s in-my-day speeches and the angst of being burdened by the dogma and structure thrust upon them by their elders. It’s quite literally a tale as old as time. Giving voice to those quirks and biases allows them to be honed and refined.
As millennials, we should be open to those critiques, as no doubt we will soon offer the same to the Gen Z and Gen Alphas that follow us.
I think a lot of millennials, especially in marketing, get caught in the trap of thinking what they like is what everyone else likes. I’ve written and spoken about this before. It’s pervasive, and you see it in the way companies marshal resources into the marketplace. From product design to marketing placements, millennials seem to get tunnel vision more than other generations.
From the media world, Ryan Gresham agreed. “Every person brings their personal media consumption bias to content and marketing. Too many marketers have their way and don’t consider all the media tools available. Don’t put all your marketing eggs in one or two baskets. Print, Instagram, radio, Facebook, email, podcasts, YouTube, websites, X, LinkedIn, SMS, TV, streaming or CTV, none of these are good or bad. They are tools available to reach audiences and drive awareness, capture audience, and ultimately sales.”
There’s no one right way, but there are certainly wrong ways. I think that’s a hangup for millennials. Whether it is born out of social media echo chambers or a generational shift, I’m not sure, but it seems to be less elastic with millennials than other generations.
In that same vein, there seems to be a trend of millennials letting who they want their customer, to be, rather than who their customer actually is, skew their judgement. This goes back to the generational examination and where Baby Boomers and Gen X are in the grand scheme of life. They still hold a larger portion of the expendable income and the purchasing power to buy your products.
“Who has the disposable income and the wish to get the stuff they missed out on due to raising a family, careers, and more?” Huntington asked. “Boomers. So it’s critical today’s younger leadership learn why we older shooters think the way we do, what we enjoy and why, and the fact that in spite of what many might think, the vast majority of Boomers are pretty tech savvy.”
When asked about millennial influence in the industry landscape, Brent Wheat answered similarly: “I think they tend to focus on who they wish their primary consumer to be, instead of looking at who is actually spending money for their products.”
It’s a valid point. So much of the discourse in sales and marketing revolves around capturing the “next generation of shooters.” As a thought exercise, that’s great. The problem is, you have to survive long enough for the next generation to actually have money to sustain your brand. If, in the meantime, you abandon the customers keeping your lights on today, that future gets bleak in a hurry.
This chase toward new customers has a lot of millennial leaders abandoning some of the traditional industry paradigms that have gotten us to this point.
While Linda Powell credited millennial leaders for expanding many brands’ reach by leveraging their digital acumen, there is another side to those efforts. “This can be a fault if it leads to abandoning all traditional forms of communication,” she said, adding, “Interaction is an integral part of success. I would encourage them to incorporate personal relationships into their corporate marketing and sales plans.”
Andrew McKean, long-time editorial powerhouse, has seen a similar evolution. “In some cases, I sense that brands have moved to a younger, digital-first type of content producer, and consequently, our relationship has faded a bit. But other brands value my long perspective of the industry and the content and brand expression in various types of content, and our relationship has deepened.”
Broadly, I think younger generations struggle with balancing knowledge and wisdom. Access to information via the internet, compounded by walking around with supercomputers in our pockets, has created a knowledge bubble. Because we can access information at any given moment, we think that counts as knowing what to do with it once we have it. There’s no teacher like experience, and while we have some, there’s a lot we haven’t seen. Rather than partnering with some of our more experienced leaders and putting their experience through our modern prism, we’ve gotten comfortable shouting, “OK, Boomer!” and walking away.
Generations have a way of talking past each other. This isn’t unique to millennials and Boomers or Gen X. Every generation of parents wishes their kids would just listen and respect the knowledge that came before them. Every generation of kids wishes their parents would accept that the world is changing and we need to change with it. This dynamic is true in homes and workplaces. Both sides of the generational gap could do a better job respecting what the other brings to the table.
Tom Gresham said it this way: “Every generation though time has misjudged and marginalized the volume of knowledge and experience of older generations. ’Twas always thus. Smart people tap into the resource built over decades rather than learning through hard knocks. That person with gray hair may well have tackled and solved, many years ago, the problem that’s causing you fits. Ask.”
“Embrace experience,” said Huntington. “Don’t discount it just becomes it comes from someone with gray hair.”
The Industry, in the Future
Uncertainty is the most frustrating of states. Growth is exciting. Contraction can be planned around. When it could go either way, or neither way, paralysis by analysis becomes more common than anything else. Sadly, this is where we sit. Maybe in the gap between writing this and you reading it, something has broken loose and the future seems a little more predictable, but rest assured I didn’t hold my breath for that to be the case.
For my part, I think we’re dealing with a bit of a shooting sports bubble. The post-AWB/Obama years were like nothing the industry had ever seen. It was tremendous — product almost sold itself. The industry grew, new shooters came in droves, and hay was made in the sunshine.
The influx of new shooters led to an expansion of gun and carry rights, with many new laws that opened up permitless carry to a total of 29 states.
Today, and moving forward, it feels like we’ve made all the progress we can make there. The holdout states aren’t likely to expand gun rights anytime soon, and in many cases, Virginia most recently, we see those rights heading in the other direction. Like so much of life, gun laws are just becoming more polarizing.
The tenor around the Obama years of fear and panic has largely subsided in those states where newly-codified expansions have lulled consumers to sleep. The panic and fear that drove sales a decade ago has evaporated. In recent years, highly visible and troubling events that would have led to runs on guns and ammo that left shelves bare for months didn’t even change subject lines for daily digital outlets.
I can’t fathom the trillions of rounds of 9mm, .223, and .308 that have been hoarded in basements over the last 20 years — the owners of which are now saying, “I think I’m good.”
The best we can hope for in the meantime, is stagnation, I think. In reality, I think we’re about to see another 12 to 36 months of contraction. The industry that had to race to meet demand for much of the 2000s eventually met it. Now, the industry has to find a new floor.
I think the future actually looks much more like our past, honestly. Not our recent past, but something akin to the 1990s. A static industry, rather than booming. New releases and innovation will be rewarded, but the days of simply being able to say something is for sale will no longer be enough to generate sales. Relationships are going to be more important than ever. A shop owner will want to work with reps and companies that are interested in long-term strategic partnerships, not a quick turn to end the fiscal quarter.
Marketing is going to rely on being present and in communication with legitimate and reputable content creators who can tell a story, not just bomb a timeline. I think social media will plateau as well, as the polarization of guns as a political football makes their inclusion in the platforms more difficult.
For many in the industry, this is going to feel like a totally new existence. For those holdovers from the ’80s and ’90s, I think the future is going to feel like a return to normalcy, rather than a departure from it.
As smart as we millennial leaders may think we are, the last time the industry landscape looked like this, we were tuning into Urkel and Uncle Jesse in the TGIF lineup and arguing with friends over whose Trapper Keeper was most rad.
Maybe we need to tap into where the industry came from to see how to navigate looking forward. But what do I know? I’m just some punk-kid millennial…
