While analysis of the capabilities of future AI waiver between skepticism and paranoia, everyone agrees that governments are investing heavily in AI development and continue to rely on these systems as they improve. In particular, they are using them to improve military and intelligence capabilities. There is a great deal of concern that such nation states will use AI to develop weapons of mass destruction or entirely new weapons which have no countermeasure. 

We have discussed Large Language Models in the past, such as ChaptGPT and Grok. These are considered Narrow AI (ANI), which is a weak form of AI designed for specific tasks and operating within a limited scope. You use forms of it every day, and so do the military and government. 

Governments are after what is known as General AI (AGI), which is envisioned as having human-like intelligence, capable of performing any intellectual task a human can. While AGI remains theoretical and is not yet achieved, developers are concentrating on narrowly focused forms of AGI or generative intelligence.

The holy grail is Superintelligent AI (ASI) which would surpass human intelligence in all areas, including creativity, problem-solving, and emotional intelligence. ASI could potentially self-improve rapidly, raising ethical and existential concerns. This does not exist and many are skeptical it is possible. The stuff of science fiction is Self-Aware AI, a form which knows what it is and that it is distinct from humankind. It would understand its own existence and motivations, far beyond current technology.

The most disruptive aspect of AI is that it has the potential to quickly level the playing field. America’s advantage is that we foster innovation. Most countries do not because innovators are hard to control. While social control ensures power at home, it also places them at a disadvantage on the world stage. Governments that have not traditionally had access to innovation could very quickly speed up their decision-making ability via faster and better analysis of data via AI. Given the personnel who can utilize AI the most effectively, they could also begin to foster creation of new technologies, including weapons. While many will still fall short due to lack of infrastructure and capital, some will choose to utilize AI to gain asymmetric advantage in a variety of areas, most notably the national elements of power. 

For those of you unfamiliar, I will go over the four primary elements of national power. We use the key word DIME as a memory tool. 

D is for Diplomatic

I is for Informational

M is for Military

E is for Economic

While I could write an entire article on the elements of national power, you can get an idea of the types of things governments do in these domains to influence one another as well their citizens. 

In past installments, I have told you that the most likely negative impact of AI will be in influencing your decisions. This could be accomplished by a government, a corporation, or even someone you know who has accessed AI to learn about ways to sway your opinion one way or another. 

They can use AI to gain information about you and use it to constantly control what you see on the internet to persuade your thinking. Likewise, government can use AI to counter such operations by our foes. Hopefully, government will also develop laws and policies to protect citizens from influence by industry. 

Here in the U.S., President Trump signed Executive Order 14179, “Removing Barriers to American Leadership in Artificial Intelligence,” immediately after taking office. The order directs government agencies to review and revise policies conflicting with this goal, streamline data center permitting, and promote AI exports, while ensuring federal procurement of large language models adheres to principles of truth-seeking and ideological neutrality. This is a whole of government approach. We’ve already seen AI used in government when DOGE used it to analyze federal spending. Soon, it will be introduced into the air traffic control system to make better sense of real-time flight information. 

Military and intelligence agency use of AI includes mining massive amounts of data, such as overhead imagery and written reports to find items of interest. This is often paired with machine learning, which programs the system to learn as it does its job. This is leading to self-piloting vehicles and aircraft as well as weapons that can target independently. However, U.S. and NATO policy is that a human will be in the loop and must authorize a weapon to be fired. This is referred to as Human-Machine Teaming. Essentially, the weapon (or robotic system/drone) will augment the senses of the human and place itself in areas that are hazardous to the human, but man will make the final decision on any use of that weapon. This is a highly ethical stand, but as others begin to allow weapons to make their own targeting decisions, there will be pressure on Western societies to follow suit in order to speed up the targeting and weapon application process. 

Ultimately, even though we know AI can be used for bad, it can also be used for good. We’re going to have to live with the risk. Basically, if we don’t adopt it, someone else will and will use it to dominate us. They will likely work to influence our thoughts and beliefs but may also use this technology to gain the upper hand in the other elements of national power, including weapon development and military decision-making. Don’t forget, the economy can also be weaponized, and AI will be used by many both inside and outside of government to manipulate currency and markets. Eventually, artificial intelligence will touch virtually every aspect of our lives. However, those who are conscious of the effects of AI-derived information will have a leg up on how they react to its influence.